CFB: Mid-Week Success

Cfootball Betting Lines

10/14/2008 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Most college football aficionados pay attention to their favorite sport just one day per week, as there are approximately 50 games each Saturday to wager on from morning until night.

With all that action, it's sometimes hard to focus on the few games that occur in the middle of the week. These contests are usually forgettable matchups featuring teams from the Sun Belt or Conference USA, and are for the sole purpose of exposing the non-BCS leagues to the general public.

However, one rule of thumb in terms of gambling is never let a golden opportunity to make money pass by, and these mid-week games have been a haven for underdog players.

From week two through week seven, there have been 21 games that have taken place between Tuesday and Friday, and the favorite has produced a paltry 6-15 ATS record. Even in week six, when the betting choice won 40 of the 52 games straight up with a 27-23-2 ATS mark, the underdog came through in five of the seven battles during the middle of the week.

What could be the cause of this 71% winning percentage trend? It's pretty simple. The majority of the country rarely sees most of these teams, and being on national television is the time for all programs - even the supposedly weak ones - to show everyone what they are all about.

PACK ATTACKED BY NOLES?

Even though this coming Thursday night pits a pair of ACC clubs in Florida State and NC State, it's obvious the Seminoles are the marquee name. They have won two straight, with the last victory coming on the road at Miami-Florida and one has to wonder how emotionally spent Bobby Bowden's club is after that battle, even with the extra days of rest.

The Seminoles, who are 5-8 both SU and ATS in their last 13 road games, are just 3-4 SU and 1-6 ATS vs. NC State the last seven meetings. In fact, the last time these two teams met on a Thursday night in Raleigh, the Wolfpack proved victorious with a 24-20 win as the 9.5-point underdog.

NC State (2-4) has been the underdog in all five of its lined games this season. However, the Pack has covered three of the last four and is getting healthy at the right time. Don't forget, Tom O'Brien guided his team to four consecutive victories after a bye week last season.

Take NC State plus the points.

CLUBS TO BET AGAINST

There are 12 teams in the country that have yet to post a straight up victory against FBS competition. Five squads (Washington State, Washington, Syracuse, Rutgers and Indiana) come from BCS conferences, with Miami-Ohio, Kent State, UAB, SMU, UL-Monroe, North Texas and Idaho rounding out the dirty dozen.

Taking a closer look at these 12 clubs reveals another interesting nugget, a 17-48-1 ATS record, led by Washington State's 0-6 mark. After injuries to their first three quarterbacks, the Cougars are down to their fourth-string QB just in time for USC. (If the Trojans lose this game, it will be even more stunning than their loss to Stanford last year as a 40-point favorite.)

Three other clubs have posted a combined 2-15 ATS mark, as Indiana is 0-5 while both Idaho and North Texas are 1-5 ATS.

I'm not suggesting to wager against these 12 clubs each and every week, because trends such as this one have a way of evening themselves out. Nevertheless, it does pay off to keep track of these types of numbers when thinking about which teams are failing to cover the spread on a consistent basis.

It also helps to identify when these horrific clubs are able to turn the corner. For example, my bottom 12 FBS teams heading into the season have combined for an 18-51 SU record with a 32-37 ATS mark, but a couple of those clubs have actually fared better than expected. UL-Lafayette and Florida International are the only two of the 12 to post .500 or better records both SU and ATS.

The Ragin' Cajuns showed improvement when they almost upset Illinois in their second game and since that contest, they are 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS. FIU covered the 28-point spread in their 17-9 loss to South Florida on September 20, and followed that up by winning their next three games both SU and ATS.

I bring up these two teams to show how supposed bottom feeders can suddenly turn their fortunes around. The other 10 squads I placed at the bottom of the barrel in the preseason rankings are a combined 22-35 ATS, so when figuring out which teams to bet on or against, it all comes down to how well each squad is playing at the time of the wager

THE NEW TOP 10 AND LAST WEEKS RESULTS

Texas took sole possession of the number one spot in the new Jeff Frank Top 10 after taking care of business vs. Oklahoma. The 10-point win improved the Longhorns to a 106.5 power number, while USC fell to a second place tie with Florida after the Gators dominated LSU in Gainesville. The biggest jump of the week belonged to Penn State, as the Nittany Lions moved up three notches from eight to five. Here are the new rankings:

1) Texas, 106.5; 2-T) Florida and USC, 106; 4) Oklahoma, 103; 5) Penn State, 102; 6) Missouri, 99.5; 7) Georgia, 98.5; 8) Oklahoma State, 98; 9) Texas Tech, 97.5; 10) Alabama, 96

The overall record now stands at 28-25, with a 12-10 mark in key plays (Last week 2-1, W - Colorado State and San Jose State, L - Missouri) and a 16-15 record in secondary selections (Last week 3-3, W - Ball State, Stanford and Minnesota, L - Iowa State, Indiana and Wisconsin).

THIS WEEK'S TOP PLAYS

Ole Miss has already knocked off a top-ranked opponent in the Florida Gators on September 27. Now it's on to Tuscaloosa to take on the second-ranked Crimson Tide.

Alabama has had most of its success this season away from home with huge scores over Georgia and Clemson. On the other hand, Nick Saban's squad was sluggish at Bryant-Denny Stadium vs. both Tulane and Kentucky, and the Tide is now 0-6 ATS in its last six as a conference home favorite. Taking it a step further, Alabama has covered just two of its last 18 as a home favorite inside the SEC.

The Rebels are coming off a loss to South Carolina just one week after upsetting Florida in Gainesville. In fact, their two best efforts of the season have come on the road, considering they led Wake Forest by one point with seconds to go before Sam Swank lifted the Demon Deacons to victory with a 41-yard field goal.

Houston Nutt's club knew it could play with Florida coming into the game after losing by just six points last season. Imagine the confidence the Rebels have heading into this one after three straight three-point losses to Alabama. In fact, they should have won the game last year, leading by seven points midway in the fourth quarter.

Take Ole Miss plus the points.

Colorado State gave TCU fits last week losing by just six points to the nation's top-ranked club against the run. Unfortunately, the eighth-ranked team in terms of rushing defense hosts the Rams this Saturday, so don't expect much improvement from the 11 yards on 28 carries Colorado State was able to muster vs. the Horned Frogs.

Utah has not been getting the publicity BYU has received this season, as the Utes are 14th in the country as opposed to the ninth-rated Cougars. Still, there is no denying the explosiveness of their offense. They are averaging over 40 ppg vs. non-BCS schools after dismantling Wyoming, 40-7, in Laramie.

It's true Colorado State's defense was solid vs. TCU but the game was played on a wet field and the Horned Frogs were obviously looking ahead to their contest against BYU. In addition, TCU played the entire game without its starting quarterback.

The Rams have had just one true road game this season and were rocked by California, 42-7. In their other game away from home, they fell to Colorado, 38-17. Expect another blowout loss this Saturday at Utah.

Take the Utes minus the points.

This week's secondary selections are Iowa State, Navy, Virginia, Kansas and Duke.