Misremembered wins Big 'Cap and Alphie's Bet takes Sham

Horseracing Betting Lines

03/06/2010 - Arcadia, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Misremembered, ridden by Martin Garcia, held off Neko Bay down the stretch to win Saturday's 73rd running of the $750,000 Santa Anita Handicap (Big 'Cap) at Santa Anita Park.

The four-year-old covered the 1 1/4-miles in 2:00.20.

Trained by Bob Baffert, Misremembered was trying to snap a three-race losing streak, where he was second in each attempt. He was coming off a loss to Jeranimo as the 7-10 favorite in the Strub Stakes at Santa Anita.

The pace in the Big 'Cap was set by Mast Track with jockey David Flores. Misremembered was racing second with Marsh Side third and Jeranimo running fourth in the 14-horse field.

Entering the far turn, Misremembered swung to the outside to take the lead as Dakota Phone made a move to the front. Misremembered had the lead at the top of the stretch as Neko Bay, on the inside, went past Dakota Phone.

Misremembered was able to repel Neko Bay down the stretch and posted a neck victory over the seven-year-old. Dakota Phone finished third, with Jeranimo fourth.

Completing the order of finish was Rendezvous, St Trinians, Marsh Side, Delightful Kiss, Pick Six, Pool Play, Loup Breton, Tiger's Rock, Eagle Poise and Mast Track. St Trinians was the only female in the race.

Misremembered is co-owned by Baffert and Natalie and George Jacobs. The Big 'Cap win was worth $450,000 and was the fifth career victory for the horse in 11 career starts. Misremembered has lifetime earnings of $1,188,589.

Last year he won the Swaps and Indiana Derby and finished 2009 as the runner- up in the Clark Handicap and Malibu Stakes.

Misremembered returned $10.80, $6.00 and $4.40. Neko Bay paid $7.80 and $6.00, and Dakota Phone paid $10.40 to show.

Additionally, in the rescheduled Sham Stakes for three-year-olds, it was Alphie's Bet taking the lead at the top of the stretch on his way to a 2 1/4- length victory. The Sham is a prep for the $750,000 Santa Anita Derby on April 3.

Alphie's Bet, ridden by Alex Solis, captured the $150,000 Sham and put himself on the road to the Kentucky Derby. Sent off at 8-1 in the 10 horse field, Alphie's Bet won the 1 1/8-mile stakes in a time of 1:48.72.

Finishing second was 5-2 favorite Setsuko followed by The Program, Outlaw Man, Boulder Creek, Marcello, Nextdoorneighbor, Kettle River, El Mirage King and Wolf Tail.

Alphie's Bet is trained by Alexis Barba for owners Peter Johnson and Teresa McWilliams. The win was worth $90,000 and is the colt's first stakes victory. In five career starts, Alphie's Bet has two wins and $141,320.

"He was a little bit closer than I thought he'd be," Barba said. "I was pleased to see it, actually. I was pleased to see that he got into the race a little earlier than his last race, in which he was kind of pinched back a little bit. So it was nice to see him closer, instead of that horrifying last place at the quarter pole. I'm not sure what we're going to do with this horse yet (for his next race). We're going to discuss it and then we're going to let you know after we figure it out."

Alphie's Bet paid $19.00, $8.40 and $4.80. Setsuko returned $4.40 and $3.20, and The Program paid $4.00 to show.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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